Hydro-hegemony and transboundary conflict resolution: the case of Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan

Abstract

Uzbekistan, which has been traditionally viewed as the hydro-hegemon in the Amu Darya and Syr Darya river basins, has been historically opposed to the construction of dams by its neighbors Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan on these rivers. Following the death of President Islam Karimov in 2016, Uzbekistan’s policy changed, and the country started to redesign its policy framework with Kyrgyzstan, signing a historic border demarcation deal and an agreement on the joint construction of the Kambar-Ata 1 Hydroelectric Power Plant. Several developments, including changes in Uzbekistan’s bargaining power against Kyrgyzstan, pushed the former to redefine its hydro-hegemony. Based on an analysis of bilateral accords, official press releases, commentary by officials coupled with quantitative data collected from secondary sources, I attempt to demonstrate that hydro-hegemony can effectively explain transboundary relations between the two countries both before and after 2016. More broadly, I argue that as the power asymmetry changes, hydro-hegemons are forced to revise their discourses.